THINGS HAVE CHANGED
Our theme this year is taken from Bob Dylan's latest award winning song, "Things Have Changed," from the recent movie "Wonder Boys." While nobody is suggesting that the new Bush Administration fits the title of the movie, an all-Republican government for the first time since 1953 suggests that the parameters of the policy debate have been altered; things have changed.
Despite the small disputed margin of victory, President Bush has taken command of the government, as any good leader would do. He has fashioned an administration of experienced Cabinet members, many of whom served his father, and an extremely loyal White House staff that has, at least for the first 100 days, avoided the backbiting that mars most administrations. No need for Dick Morris yet!
The President has been focused. His fight for tax relief, although not, so far, at the $1.6 trillion he claimed was necessary, has succeeded in moving Democrats much further than they thought they would go. The $1.35 trillion cut over 11 years agreed to in the budget resolution, including a $100 billion reduction-as-a-stimulus package in 2001 and 2002, may be close enough to fulfill most of his wishes on marginal rate reductions, estate tax repeal, marriage penalty mitigation, and the child credit increase. How much further it will allow him to go, including making the research and experiment tax credit permanent, will depend on the legislative details yet to be worked out.
On the spending side, the President's FY 2002 budget priorities were derived from the campaign - education, defense, and health research. They account for almost the entire four percent increase in discretionary spending proposed by Bush. As the Administration asserts every chance they get, the more-than-eight percent spending growth of the last Clinton-106th Congress appropriations dance cannot be sustained.
On the other hand, the Bush folks justify some of their small budget increases for certain agencies, such as the National Science Foundation, by pointing out the large increases granted in FY 2001. For the most part, the Administration's budget avoids the wholesale cutting that occurred during President Reagan's first budget, including the massive reductions for social and behavioral science research that occurred in the early 1980s. In addition, the short time frame that the new Office of Management and Budget (OMB), led by Mitch Daniels, had to prepare the budget kept them from scrutinizing some programs too closely. Already, new Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson has told congressional committees that next year will be different and programs in his agency will incur closer examination.
If the Congressional budget resolution's boost to a nearly five percent spending increase over last year holds, there may be some room for additional spending for other programs.
The Bush Administration has yet to name a Presidential Science Adviser. The lack of such an official was said to hamper the budgetary success of the government's science agencies. Yet, at a presentation of the President's FY 2002 budget, an OMB official suggested that the R&D budget did very well since it included a proposed six percent increase over FY 2001 to reach an all-time record of $95.3 billion. Any increase over four percent should be considered excellent, he declared. Another way of looking at the same picture, however, is to suggest that if the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Defense are taken out of the equation, the increase becomes a decrease compared to FY 2001.
Another way to examine these figures is to note that Basic Research climbs from $22 billion to $23.4 billion, a six percent boost; Applied Research goes from $20.7 billion to $21.6 billion, a four percent raise; Development increases from $42.6 billion to $46 billion, up eight percent; and R&D facilities and equipment drops from $4.7 billion to $4.4 billion.
The campaign to double the NIH budget has had enormous impact. NIH's budget will make up almost half of nondefense R&D in the FY 2002 budget. After achieving parity during the Clinton Administration, the Bush proposal moves Defense R&D back ahead of Civilian R&D: $48.6 billion to $46.7 billion. The Defense numbers are preliminary, since the Administration is currently conducting a complete review of the military.
The Bush Administration, as earlier administrations have, will try to limit the Congressional practice of earmarking funds for specific projects they deem worthy. The Bush folks state that earmarks to colleges and universities are "increasing at alarming rates, undermining competitive, merit-based efforts." The FY 2000 budget included close to $1 billion in one-time projects designated by members of Congress. Of course, appropriators have always defended their prerogative to spend the government's money as they see fit, which includes rewarding their friends. How this plays out may determine President Bush's ability to succeed in his desire to keep spending in check.
With former National Science Foundation (NSF) Director Neal Lane as President Clinton's Science Adviser, the Administration in 2000 proposed the largest dollar increase in NSF's history. At the same time, Senators Christopher "Kit" Bond (R-MO) and Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) launched a campaign to double the NSF's budget in five years. Although the proposed $675 million boost ended up as a $519 million appropriation increase for FY 2001, it was still the largest dollar rise in NSF's history.
This year, with no science adviser at all, let alone the former NSF Director, things did change. Unlike his father, who proposed double-digit increases for NSF during an earlier attempt at budget doubling, the new President Bush recommended a $56 million or 1.3 percent increase for the Foundation in FY 2002. The increase would have become a decrease if not for a $200 million Math Science Partnership Initiative "that will link elementary and secondary schools with our technology-savvy colleges and universities to strengthen math and science education at all levels." A major part of the initiative will produce programs to train better math and science teachers at the K-12 level.
Since NSF, in its proposed budget, increases slightly its funding of the major emphases of last year - Biocomplexity in the Environment, Information Technology Research, Nanoscale Science and Engineering and Learning in the 21st Century - the research directorates suffer slight decreases, including the Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences Directorate.
Despite all this, Senators Bond and Mikulski are carrying on their effort to double the budget. In addition, NSF has been asked to "document the efficiency of the research process." OMB wants to know whether increasing grant size and duration has a positive impact on research output. A survey of research institutions and researchers will impact the plans for the FY 2003 budget.
As noted, the Bush Administration pledged to maintain the effort to double NIH's budget, a campaign entering its fourth year of five. The Administration has proposed a $2.7 billion increase, bringing NIH's total to $23.1 billion. This is not a true doubling, according to NIH's Senate appropriators Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Tom Harkin (D-IA), who claim that a $3.4 billion increase is necessary. There are some people asking whether NIH can absorb all these funds, but they are drowned out by those who argue that there is nothing more important the federal government can do than fund medical research.
The behavioral and social sciences continue to rise with the tide at NIH. The Office of Behavioral and Social Science Research, with its new leader Raynard Kington, has seen its budget increase as it acts as a catalyst for infusing these sciences throughout the medically-dominated Institutes. Health disparities and prevention continue to hold a high place on the NIH agenda. The Administration still seeks a new Director, who could change that, but it has become even clearer that social and behavioral factors impact health in so many ways that it would be difficult to go back to ignoring them.
One of the priorities for the new Administration is increasing the capability of American students. To accomplish that, President Bush promises "evidence-based" policies that will improve both the performance and accountability of American schools. The reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, which contains the President's new education initiative, is about to come before the Congress. The President has appointed two educational researchers to key positions within the Department. Both Susan Neuman, nominated as Assistant Secretary for Elementary and Secondary Education, and Russ Whitehurst, nominated as Assistant Secretary for the Office of Educational Research and Improvement (OERI), are researchers on reading and other aspects of learning. Yet, the proposed OERI research budget is up only $2.5 million. The large increase is for assessment, which fits with the President's accountability emphasis. Graduate Education and International Education are level-funded.
At the Department of Agriculture, the Administration's attempt to significantly reduce earmarks will face the usual stiff resistance from appropriators. The National Research Initiative Competitive Grants program is level-funded; other programs, such as the Economic Research Service and the National Agricultural Statistical Service, would see slight increases. The Fund for Rural America would survive, but at half its previous level. On the other hand, the Initiative for Future Agriculture and Food Systems still has $120 million. In 2001 preliminary discussions will be held to prepare for next year's major reauthorization of the farm bill.
At the Department of Justice, the Office of Justice Programs has a new Assistant Attorney General designee, Deborah Daniels of Indiana. Sarah Hart has been designated the new Director of the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), whose core budget is reduced because of the elimination of an earmark. NIJ still benefits from funds it receives from programs such as the Violence Against Women Act, that make its real budget significantly larger. The Bureau of Justice Statistics gets an increase from the new Administration.
As part of a renewed effort to enhance the nation's economic statistics, the Bush Administration recommends that the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the Department of Commerce receive an 18 percent increase. For the Census Bureau, with the 2000 decennial census now moving into the data release phase, there is funding in the proposed budget to start looking at 2010. The American Community Survey (ACS) will remain in its pilot testing phase with a slight increase for 2002. The ACS, with its continuous measurement, has been touted as rendering the long-form unnecessary in 2010. The issue of meshing the ACS with other government-supported surveys, such as the Current Population Survey, needs addressing.
The National Endowment for the Humanities, led by the Mississippian Bill Ferris, is no longer in danger of disappearing, thanks to the support of Mississippi's Republican Senators, including Majority Leader Trent Lott. However, its budget, increased slightly by Congress last year, is level-funded by President Bush. Separately, the Administration proposes an increase for the educational and cultural bureau of the Department of State, home to the Fulbright and other exchange programs.
The first year of any new administration brings new faces and new policies. The first Bush budget is characterized by the fulfillment of campaign promises, an attempt to restrain discretionary spending, and the need for a major tax cut, while relying on forecasts that predict budget surpluses into the future. The other agencies and programs not on the priority list were left unharmed, for the most part, and they hope that their friends in the legislative branch will help them out as the budget process moves forward. As always, social and behavioral scientists are uniquely positioned to influence the debates with their research and knowledge. Let the policymakers hear from you!
May 2001